As we assess the potential impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on the U.S. economy, and by extension, on our industry, several early indicators point toward renewed strength in the retail sector.

This new set of measures affects various areas related to U.S. security and the economy. On one hand, it increases investment in security through infrastructure and Homeland Security personnel. On the other hand, it extends specific tax deduction policies for both individuals and businesses, while also introducing spending cuts, mainly targeting the Medicaid health plan and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which predominantly affect low-income sectors.

At first glance, the OBBBA puts more money in citizens’ (consumers) pockets by increasing their tax deductions (including SALT), and now allows deductions for tips and overtime. It also increases the child tax credit.

Why this matters for retail

All of this leads us to believe that in the short term, consumer spending will rise, which suggests continued momentum for retail-related projects. As consumer confidence increases, we expect to see a continued demand for retail development, remodels, and new rollouts. This includes brick-and-mortar investments, omnichannel upgrades, and logistical improvements to meet shifting consumption patterns.

From a Program Management standpoint, this anticipated boost in consumer activity creates opportunities—but also demands greater speed, adaptability, and cost-efficiency from the AEC industry. Clients may seek to capitalize quickly on favorable conditions, pushing timelines and emphasizing scalability across markets.

Keep an eye on the big picture

While the short-term outlook seems positive—higher spending, business growth, and steady employment—there’s still debate around the bill’s potential to increase the national debt and what that could mean for interest rates in the medium term. These variables may shape how aggressively developers move forward on long-term retail investments.

Overall, the immediate impact on the economy will be positive, likely boosting both production and consumer investment, and therefore employment, whose rate has been steadily increasing since the post-COVID recovery. All of this points to improved business conditions for our sector over the next four years.